The free system I will present now is not included in the licensed strategy package. As I explained many times, I give away freebies when I am certain I have far better systems, strategies, or software. On the other hand, I received several requests to give more details on how my systems work and what makes them tick. The predominant opinion is that nobody can play roulette for a profit consistently. Here is just one proof to the contrary. This is a real thing: a winning roulette system. There is also real life data to back it up. The skips presented here are collected from the Hamburg, Germany casino (first week of February, 2000).
A diligent, disciplined player can make a weekly profit by COVERING ALL THE NUMBERS BUT FOUR PLAYING NO MORE THAN 10 SPINS A DAY. The four numbers discarded of are the last four spins. You wait patiently, not playing, until the following event occurs. When one of the last four numbers hits again, you get ready to play.
You cover all the numbers (0 and 00 including) but the numbers in the last FIVE spins (four numbers to play, because one is a repeat). You place 34 2-unit straight-up bets. Chances are you will win most of the time. Next spin, you make the same bet, using now three units per number (you are using some casino money). The first time you won 38-36=2 units; 2 units times 2 = 4 units profit. The second time: you won 2 units x 3 = 6 units. Total profit per two plays: 10 units.
Things are not always like this. Handy Brandy could lose sometimes the first bet. It happens very rarely, but one of the last four numbers will hit again in consecutive sequence. In most cases, Handy Brandy wins two times in a row without any of the last four numbers repeating. He goes immediately to another table. He knows that the "long run" kills the casino player more than anything else. After winning at the second table too, Handy Brandy usually cashes out. He runs out of the casino. Sometimes he might try doing the same things at the third table, but never more than winning at three roulette tables. The player will do the same thing the next day at a different casino and again at another casino...
Here is illustrative data from the Hamburg casino (Spielbanken). The following figures do NOT represent roulette numbers, but SKIPS. The skips, as in the frequency reports on the main roulette page, represent the number of spins between hits. I had received several complaints before this clarification. Even self-declared experienced roulette numbers believed that 57 below was a roulette number! Therefore what a gambling nut we was!
9 5 57 17 30 18 0 3 13 25 6 0 4 17 2 24 0 4 3 15 13 8 21 2 23 2 6 7 7 10 3 3 17 10 15 11 1 15 3 1 24 11 10 2 3 13 6 12 3 3 24 6 10 21 4 8 9 8 10 5 3 11 3 9 9 3 1 0 20 7 21 7 18 6 0 17 4 13 5 2 6 16 0 2 4 0 7 0 7 1 8 1 8 7 1 5 4 12 3 0 10 1 29 28
A figure such as 57 represents the skip of a particular roulette number. That particular roulette number (the 3rd most recent in our database) hit after 57 spins. That is, if we look at index 57+3 in our database, we'll find the same number again. Zero in the string above does not represent the 'green 0' (roulette number 0). It means that a particular number hit two spins in row, or hit in two consecutive spins. Couldn't be clearer now. This page has been written by addition, rather than from the ground up. I added instead of editing and rewriting the material from top to bottom. The page also shows my growing in my linguistic English shoes! It is also clear that a force inside fights me from being too clear! No gambler has ever been more generous with his/her secrets than me!
The roulette program SPINS offers the best graphical representation of this free system. Page down to the end of the frequency report. The report of interest is named 'Play all the numbers except for the last 5 spins'. The report also recommends playing immediately following two consecutive misses (indicated by the sign). SPINS version 3.0 is available from the FTP downloads site.
You only play at the points marked 0 (zero). That's when one of the last four numbers repeated. You will play as above the next 3 points where the skip is zero. In many cases, it's after the third win in a row when you can encounter a string like 0 0. When that happens, you will lose 34x2=68 units. (It did not happen in the real case illustrated above). You improve your chances further when you leave after you won at three tables. You should expect to lose once a week.
Version 2.1 of SPINS analyzes real casino spins, in addition to analyzing randomly generated spins. Most importantly, the program reports on the free system presented above. The strategy is improved a little bit. The system excludes now the numbers from the last 5 spins (instead of 4)! According to the strategy, it is recommended to play after 2 consecutive '-' in the 'Result +/-' column.
There are several reasons why I receive questions regarding my free roulette system. It is not fully clear to but a few how to use it. My intention was not to present a step-by-step casino strategy. My primary intention was to show, to prove that roulette can be beaten mathematically. Most people, including many gamblers, have a hard time understanding mathematics. This simple system, as all my gambling/lottery strategies are based on math.
Ion Saliu's Paradox and Roulette
Ion Saliu's Paradox of N Trials is presented in detail at saliu.com, especially the probability theory page and the mathematics of gambling formula. If p = 1 / N, we can discover an interesting relation between the degree of certainty DC and the number of trials N. The degree of certainty has a limit, when N tends to infinity. That limit is 1 1/e , or approximately 0.632...
Axiomatic one, if you play 1 roulette number for the next 38 spins, common belief was that you expected to win once. Not! Non! Only if you play 38 numbers in 1 spin, your chance to hit the winning number is 100%. Here is an interesting table, which includes also The Free Roulette System #1 presented at the main roulette site.
The maximum gain comes when playing 38 numbers in one spin: 36.3%. Obviously, it makes no sense to play that way because of the house advantage. On the other hand, a so-called wise gambler is more than happy to play one number at a time. What he does is simply losing slowly! Not only that, but losing slowly is accompanied by losing more. That cautious type of gambling is like a placebo. A roulette system such as Free #1 scares most roulette gamblers. "Play 34 or 33 numbers in one shot? I'll have a heart attack!" In reality, the Free System #1 offers a 28.8% advantage over playing singular numbers in long sessions. That's mathematics, and there is no heart to worry about.
You can also use SuperFormula to calculate all kinds of probabilities and advantage percentages. The option 'L At least M successes in N trials' is a very useful instrument. If you play 19 numbers in one spin, the probability to win is 50%. If you play 19 numbers in 2 consecutive spins, the probability to win at least once is 75%.
Relation of the Birthday Paradox to roulette
The connection between the Birthday Paradox and the game of roulette is extraordinarily appealing to some gamblers. Unfortunately, the appeal has a thin mathematical foundation. The roulette game draws one and only one number at a time. The birthday paradox requires at least two elements. "At least two persons in a room ", etc.
If the roulette would draw 10 numbers at a time, the probability would be 72.7% that at least two of the numbers would be equal to one another (i.e. duplicates). But even if the roulette game would consist of 10 spins at a time, the birthday paradox would have nothing to do with predicting the numbers. Some gamblers make the following illogical connection. If I consider 10 roulette spins at a time, in 72.7% of the cases, at least two of the numbers will be repeats. So, if I play the last 10 numbers, the chance is very good (almost 3 out of 4 cases) that one of the numbers will repeat next! Wow! That would bankrupt every casino on the planet in a few days! If the "strategy" would hold true, the probability would rise to 99.8% that the next spin will repeat a number from the last 20 spins! Virtually, play the last 20 numbers and win every time. The cost is 20 units, the payout is 36 units, therefore that player would make a profit of 16 units in every play!
The cold truth is that the famous and appealing Birthday Paradox merely shows the percentage of sets with duplicate elements in the total elements of an exponential set. That's all. So, unsuspecting roulette enthusiasts do NOT rely on the birthday paradox when playing roulette with real money. If you do, don't ask me for a refund later! Mathematically, it is correct to expect that one of the numbers in the last 26 spins will repeat next with a better than 50-50 chance. It is the median skip calculated by the Fundamental Formula of Gambling. Real life roulette spins and randomly generated roulette numbers validate this law always.
I did check, however, several roulette tables in Atlantic City, 2004. I did not find a single roulette marquee showing unique numbers only. Out of 15 numbers, some were repeats from 3 to 7 repeat numbers. Problem is, the skips between Birthday Paradox situations reached 8 spins sometimes! Probably some players wait for 5 or 6 or so skips and then apply the Birthday Paradox. The average amount of unique numbers to play is 12. Must win in two spins to make a profit.
The relation to the Free System #1. What is the probability that two randomly drawn roulette numbers (spins) will be the same in a group of 5 roulette numbers? It is a 'birthday paradox' with 38 "birthdays". Instead of 5 persons, we deal with 5 randomly drawn roulette numbers. The probability of at least two "collisions" (coincidences, or repeats) is: 24%. It must be scary for the players of the Free System #1! Fortunately, the roulette wheel does not draw 5 numbers at a time. The reports of Roulette show you a more optimistic story. The reports are validated by real-life roulette spins, in a real-life casinos.
The Bondish system is based on the first two douzaines: play together 1-12&13-24. The scheme can be extended to any "2-1" bets. I offer the power of the standard deviation to improve James bond fictitious system. You can start with my probability software SuperFormula, option 3 (Standard Deviation). You can also use as a training tool my casino program SPINS.
The free system #2 is presented in the article:
The James Bond roulette systems in the Taliban Desert - Ion Saliu's response.
By the way, if your bankroll is smaller, you can apply this system in 50-spin sessions.
One more tip. It is possible for a two-dozen (two-column) group to hit more than seven times in a row; or, more than seven out of 10 times. If that happens, you rode a very favorable standard deviation tide. Cash out immediately and move to another table!
My message and the system were provoked by an alleged casino top executive.
"I am currently the Chairman of the MGM Grand Casino, and I was advised of this site by way of a memo sent to me."
In a way, the alleged executive's message is an endorsement of my systems. If the systems were not valid, why bother to risk being rear-end kicked by an understandably angered author? I want to stress again that the casinos have no legal grounds for banning record keeping by the players. Record keeping is also a requirement of tax laws. The rules of private entities do not take precedence over the laws.
First, I could not believe that a real casino executive would commit what I consider a serious mistake. I thought the message was from one of the frequent visitors to my web site. Some of them believe they know my psychology well enough to get free systems from me. Indeed, there were moments when I debated with valuable ideas, even systems, IF I was provoked. That's how the free system #1 came to life as well. I am aware of such tendency now and I believe I have it under control.
In any event, the damage was done. The free roulette system #2 is absolutely founded. It will give the player and edge, without a doubt. I have checked for thousands of spins, broken down in 100-spin sessions. There are clearly two situations.
One, the player wins 65 or FEWER spins; it is a losing session. The player counts 100 spins. The player started with 100 chip-units. At the end of the session, the player counts 61 units. The result was under the standard deviation. Remember to increase the bet the next session.
Two, the player wins 66 or MORE spins; it is a winning session. The player counts 100 spins. The player started with 100 chip-units. At the end of the session, the player counts 69 units. The result was above the standard deviation. Remember to decrease the bet the next session.
The fluctuations are mathematical, considering the game is totally fair. In a cyber-casino, for instance, the fluctuations go mostly in the favor of the house. The house has to win above the standard deviation, always! Or especially when player's bet is high! That's anything but fairness!
This system does not even require strict record keeping. The player can just put aside a chip for each session played, and for each 10-spin groups.
Various odds (probabilities) at 0 and 00 roulette
Type of Bet Single 0 Double 0
- straight-up (1 number): 1 in 37 1 in 38
- split (2 numbers): 1 in 18.5 1 in 19
- street (3 numbers): 1 in 12.3 1 in 12.7
- corner (4 numbers): 1 in 9.25 1 in 9.5
- fiveline (5 numbers): 1 in 7.4 1 in 7.6
- sixline (6 numbers): 1 in 6.2 1 in 6.3
- column (12 numbers): 1 in 3.1 1 in 3.2
- dozen (12 numbers): 1 in 3.1 1 in 3.2
- black/red (18 numbers): 1 in 2.06 1 in 2.11
- even/odd (18 numbers): 1 in 2.06 1 in 2.11
- low/high (18 numbers): 1 in 2.06 1 in 2.11
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