Posted by Steve Cochrane on August 04, 2000.
In Reply to: Lotto combination of 1 2 3 4 5 6 has a very low standard deviation posted by Frank on July 29, 2000.
The fact that the numbers are in sequence doesn't matter if each drawing of a number is a "unique event". If you don't believe me find someone who understands statistics and ask - its pretty basic! If you don't like using 1,2,3,4,5,6 then go to a site that generates random numbers like randomizer.org. A random set of numbers you generate there has just as much probability of occurring as anything you can generate using past results. Throwing rocks at bottles doesn't really relate since it is not statistically random. The fact that lotto combination 1,2,3,4,5,6 doesn't have a "high probability" is also true (to the same degree) of every other possible combination of 6 numbers.
: What you have said about equal probability is correct but that is only for each number. When you look at the combination as a whole it is anither story. A combination of say 1 2 3 4 5 6 as a whole does not have such a high probability due to the fact that they are in seqence. If you close your eyes and randomly throw stones at 49 bottles it will very seldom if ever happen that you will hit 6 bottles that are next to each other - the same is true of the lottery. All bottles has the same probability to be hit but the probability to hit one after another is very small. I hope this will help in clearing up your question.
: : I have read through the mathmatical justifications for the Lotto systems posted here and can't say I understand them completely. The thing that I really don't get is - what difference does it make what happened in past lotto drawings? Statistics theory as I learned it says that in an honest game every combination has equal probability, each time regardless of what happened before. If thats true why wouldn't a play of 1,2,3,4,5,6 be as likely an outcome as anything generated by the lotto software programs?
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