# Primer: Winning sports betting, soccer, football, parlay, bet systems, software

## By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sport Betting Mathematics

Written on September 10, 2002.

• Consider this your start on the way to win consistently at sports betting. The strategies and systems presented here deal with sports betting from two perspectives:
1) generate combinations in the manner of LotWon lottery
2) in the manner of casino gambling.

On one hand, we hear strongly negative opinions on the probability of winning consistently at sports betting. Summarize: the player will lose no matter what gambling or betting system he/she uses. Nobody can predict a game winner, let alone multiple winners (parlays), unless the game is fixed or rigged or mob-controlled! On the other hand, there are hilariously positive opinions and systems to win at sports betting! “100% guaranteed to always win at sports betting!”

Sports betting as a form of gambling is a very complex phenomenon ruled by theory of probability. This web site offers plenty of information on theory of probability, theory of games, and gambling mathematics. Nothing comes even close to this website. Mathematics of horseracing as digit lottery is extensively analyzed here. The cornerstone is the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG).

I will present now an abbreviated form of my system applied to the American football (specifically the NFL). You can apply this strategy manually (pencil and paper) or use a spreadsheet.
You will keep records for each team, separated in two files (spreadsheets): record at home and record on the road. Using the overall records has much lower relevance. You will work with these two very important elements: Home Team At home and Visiting Team On_the_road.

In this abbreviated version, you will use only the results (win/loss) and the points scored/allowed. Add the wins for the home team at-home with the losses for the visiting team on-the-road. Do the percentage. Normally, a percentage over 75% is a good indicator for a home team win. The average scores can offer additional useful info. In the case bellow, the game was very close to call: Just a slight advantage for the Home-Team. But the Visiting Team had a realistically good chance to win.
Using my strategy for the Italian soccer leagues, I predicted 9 even 10 (out of 13) games (70% or 77%). That is, I predicted with only one prognostication sign: 1, or X, or 2. Then I would use two signs for close games (1X, or 12, or X2), even 1X2 (cover all possible outcomes).

Keep also records of how many times you missed to pick correctly a particular team. You'll notice that certain teams tend to get surprising results more often than most teams. But it's very unusual to be surprised by the same team 5 or more consecutive games!

I offer several free systems and tons of free software to play and win. The list of my gambling, lotto and lottery freeware is so long, that I can't afford to put it on this startup page. Check the FTP download site for all that's available for free. Here is a list of free software that handles sports betting:

• SPORTS.XLS - an Excel 95 spreadsheet. This is a template to use with the sports betting system presented on the message board: "Sports Prognosticating or Betting: Best System".
• BellCurveGenerator generates combinations within the bell (Gauss) curve, around the probability (FFG) median. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling calculates the median automatically. The application handles just about any game: pick-3, pick-4, lotto-5, lotto-6, lotto-7, PowerBall-6, PowerBall-7, horse racing, roulette and sports betting (including the famous European soccer pools and American sports teams).
• BETUS32 is an intelligent random combination generator for sports betting, the American way. The player selects a number of games to bet on. The player bets on either the favorite team to win by more than the point spread, or the underdog to lose by less than the point spread.
• AMBET is much like BETUS32—but with a twist! You can add W or L at the end of a team name. Add W if the team was a winner in the previous game (week). Add L if the team lost the last game (week). For example:
COLTS-L, CHIEFS-L
BRONCOS-L, PATRIOTS-W

Here are some useful sports links. They offer schedules, betting lines, odds, results, and useful information. Things can change dramatically on the Internet. You may need to copy-and-paste the addresses, or google the essential keywords.

sports.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx/pastscores/files/pastscores.html - Scores & Odds Archive.
www.nss.net/SCORES/ - Sports Betting, Gambling, Handicapping, Live Lines.
www.vegasinsider.com - VegasInsider.com.
www.repole.com/sun4cast/ - Sunshine Forecast Historical Score Request Form.

espn.go.com - ESPN.com- the #1 sports web site in the world.
cbs.sportsline.com - CBS.SportsLine.com – the website of CBS Sports.
NFL.com – the official site of the National Football League.

## Resources in Sports Betting: Theory, Mathematics, Excel Spreadsheet, Systems, Parlays

See a comprehensive directory of the pages and materials on the subject of sports betting, software, systems, and parlays.