Published on May 13, 2001.
In Reply to: Turnaround gambling system posted by ROK on May 09, 2001.
• I found the aforementioned Turnaround gambling system. It is a free web page describing a free gambling system. It is the creation of Ian Harmer of Nevada. I cannot guarantee it is a real name. I can only honestly say it appears to be the situation of “the fox guarding the hens”. I can even smell who Fox may be (it is not the X-Files agent!).
The “turnaround” system in a nutshell: “Increase the bet after a win; never increase the bet after a loss, regardless how many consecutive losses.“ Intending to appear even more serious and convincing, the author uses some “academic” terms such as “pump” and “jump”. At the same time, the author strongly opposes the idea of any form of testing. Also, the author displays a sort of math phobia. He calls “mathmaniacs” those who insist on the mathematical foundation of the system.
I strongly consider this to be a ploy by the casinos. Here is the main clue. Increasing the bet after a player's win is the foundation of loss acceleration for the player. Don't all the slot machines in the casinos have the option of betting your win immediately, instead of cashing out? Would the casinos allow that if the feature favored the player? Obviously not. They know the math behind that form of betting. In a game where the chance is below 50% the single wins total less than multiple wins (groups of consecutive wins). That is, a player will have more WL…, WL…, streaks than WWL…, WWWL… streaks. At blackjack, the player's winning streaks will be 52% single wins and 48% multiple wins (WW or more in a row). Increasing the bet after a W (win) will, ultimately, double the house edge. The same is true at the slot machines. Betting the win without cashing out doubles the house percentage. Therefore, the player will lose two times faster his/her bankroll.
The second clue is the strong recommendation to leave the game immediately after several consecutive losses. They say: “You lost, we love it, baby! Leave now, 'cuz we don't want you recuperate a dime…” They know any streak will end; the standard deviation is the ruler. A knowledgeable player can take advantage of losing streaks. The casinos hate surges in betting by the player, when the standard deviation rules against the house.
With the advent of the Internet, more and more casino players have become aware of the mathematics of gambling and gambling systems. Of course, most systems do not work. They are random play, at best. But there is the math, and the casinos do not want it in the arsenal of the player. The casinos have been using various tactics. Mainly, they have paid “moles” to post in newsgroups or Internet forums. The moles have had only one purpose: intimidate the players. Try to scare those who are inclined to think of systems or math. At least, make such players feel like they were idiots! I have been on the stage and kicked back the moles (I call them “krazed dogs”). I kicked them quite efficiently, because I have silenced them. They just don't react against me anymore; because it is evident I make big idiots of them. So, the casinos had to find new tactics. And this is the most sophisticated one. “Hey, the systems are the hottest trend in town? Let's give the players systems, our systems!”
In case I am wrong, there is a slim probability somebody wanted me to improve on a failing system. Yes, there are situations when increasing the bet after a win has mathematical validity. I am not going, however, to offer free advice at this point. As specified on the download site, any requests for additional support, software, or systems can be honored for a US$ 1,000 (one thousand dollars) fee, without exception. This is the only thing the kasinos like about me now.
I am very interested in Ion Saliu's roulette system, either buying it or sponsoring it; I have searched and backed many systems and have yet to have been successful. Thanks Zippy “
: the Turnaround casino system was placed on the internet by its founder (ian harmer). the system was apparently not for sale at any point, and was placed on the internet to 'assist' gamblers. (free of charge). ROK
• Ion Saliu on gambling/betting systems based on doubling/increasing the bet after each win, such as Turnaround -
There are losing streaks and there are winning streaks — that's mathematics. The casinos and many gambling authors, however, grossly disregard probability theory. They established a "law" that "assures" very long losing streaks for the player — but never for the gambling establishment. Don't give me that bull — the gambler's fallacy! If there is honesty, things should closely resemble the calculations of my probability software Streaks. There should be also a reversed gambler's fallacy, Lady Chance says!
The wins and losses can be counted as streaks. There are two categories of streaks: single win/loss streaks and multiple wins/losses streaks.
The number of streaks can be determined by mathematical formulae. I will not post formulae here. If you don't trust me, do some researching of your own and at your own cost! (I am not implying that trust should be enforced!)
Of course, the number of streaks is dependent on the probability of the event. Let's consider here the event of a roulette player betting on red/black at double zero roulette (even money, or 1-to-1, or 1-for-1, or 1-on-1; it's even because both terms are equal).
The probability to win is closely equal to 0.474 (pW = 18/38 or 47.4%).
The probability to lose is pL = 0.526 (or 1 – pW).
1) WINNING streaks for the player:
• 130 single win streaks (W) in 1000 spins
•• 118 multiple win streaks (2 or more Ws: WW, WWW, WWWW, etc.) in 1000 spins.
2) LOSING streaks for the player:
• 118 single LOSS streaks (L) in 1000 spins
•• 130 multiple LOSS streaks (2 or more Ls: LL, LLL, LLLL, etc.) in 1000 spins.
The ratio 130/118 = 110.2% shows the advantage of single win streaks over multiple win streaks, OR, equivalently, the advantage of multiple loss streaks over single loss streaks. You can bet baby milk money on the fact that the casinos know extremely well about that ratio. There are games (sluts, anyone?) that offer to the player, after every win, this wager: "Double your win?" or "Bet it all?" That is, if you win 1 unit, your total becomes 2. The casino wants (badly!) that you bet 2 next. The percentage greatly favors the house. Every player should be very suspicious when such a betting "system" is offered.
I offer a great deal of roulette software. I put together all the programs and systems in a hefty package named BrightR
Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: Probability Theory, Live!
~ Founded on mathematical discoveries, also applied to roulette, gambling systems, theory of streaks; Turnaround.
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