Posted by Ion Saliu on May 22, 2001.
In Reply to: Casinos in the gambling system business? Beware! posted by Ion Saliu on May 13, 2001.
• This is the new policy of the casinos. They recommend the use of any static gambling system. They might or might not have read my opinions on the subject. They probably have. Fact is, they realize the real mathematics underpinning a static system. The gambling system will lose according to the house edge for the respective bets. I come across, on the Internet, more and more gambling systems. They are “revealed” for free nowadays. They are mainly aimed at the near 50-50 bets or games: even money bets at roulette, player/banker at baccarat, pass/don’t pass at casino craps, etc. Those who post claim consistently big winnings.
Nobody should trust me as the judge of the gambling systems; I am not asking for such an honor. Let the standard deviation be the judge. Of course, you can always use as reliable court clerk my freeware SuperFormula. One of the options handles the standard deviation. The users of the static systems claim, for example, one loss every 10-15 winning gambling sessions. They also state they reach some $100-$1000 a day, then stop; they go home with the profit.
Here is how the standard deviation reveals the falsity of the aforementioned claims. Let’s consider a probability better than in reality: 50%. If the gambler plays 100 casino gambling events (hands, spins, etc.), the standard deviation is 5. In 68.2% of the cases, the player will/lose win no more than 5 events over the break-even point. Actually, it is not a break-even point: It is the expected (theoretical) value of successes. In 95.4% of the cases, the gambler will win no more than 2 x 5 = 10 events in excess of the “break-even” point. In the case of 200 events (spins, etc.), the standard deviation is 7. In 68.2% of the cases, the player will lose or win no more than 7 spins over the “break-even” point.
The operative concept here is WIN or LOSE. The standard deviation does not favor WIN, nor does it favor LOSE. Indeed, it is very possible for a player to win today 7 spins over the break-even point, if he/she played 200 spins. But it is a big lie if he/she claims winning 14 200-spin sessions in a row. The standard deviation is blindfolded, like the goddess of justice. The win/loss gambling sessions are more evenly distributed. One cannot claim playing a Labouchere, or d’Alembert, etc. static (fixed) gambling progression and be winning above the break-even point day in and day out! Again, the win/loss sequences are a much more evenly distributed. It’s gambling mathematics and it beats passion!
Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: Probability Theory, Live!
~ Founded on mathematical discoveries, also applied to roulette, gambling systems, casinos' anti-mathematical systems.
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