ē The results at Belmont Stakes 2001:
9 Point Given
8 A P Valentine
The winning trifecta 9-8-5 was predicted straight by LotWon (combination #2). Also, the winning horse (#9) was predicted twice. The payouts were disappointing, however. $47 for the two win tickets, plus $38 for the $1 trifecta. A total of $85 in winnings, against $64 in total cost. As I said in the previous message (812.html):
"Thatís the drawback of horse-racing. You have to go through long streaks of meager winnings until long-shot trifectas hit."
I can see two approaches to playing the horse races:
1) The casino approach;
2) The lottery tactic.
1) In the casino approach, you aim at the winners. As in casino gambling, the probability is fairly high, as opposed to the much lower probability in lottery. Higher probability means shorter losing streaks. The player will track the losing streaks for higher probability bets, such as the favorite to win, or frequent exactas/trifectas to win. The player will bet larger amounts on such plays when the streaks are optimal.
2) In the lottery tactic, you aim at long shots: individual horses, or exacta/trifecta combinations. As in lottery, the probability is lower but the payout is much higher. The losing streaks are clearly longer. The player will place fairly low bets on highly paying plays. They horse racing winnings are far less frequent, and the player should be aware of that. The bets can pay really big, sometimes.
LotWon can be successfully used with both approaches. The horse racing software requires up-to-date results. I posted previously that the Triple Crown races need to make available the results by post position as well. The respective websites publish less meaningful data, such as the clouds or lack thereof. The post position is, sometimes, a more decisive factor than a horseís qualities. A super horse like Point Given lost the Kentucky Derby because of his post position (#19). The horses donít have minds, but they have great vision. It is one thing for a horse to see 18 double-creatures at the first turn. It probably is a more positive sight to notice only 8 double-creatures in frontÖ
The Preakness webmaster promised me he would make available the post positions of past Preakness Stakes races. If such data is not available, Iíll use from now on the current results of the racetrack. I treat a Triple Crown as just another race at the track. Any data is better than no data.
I remember how I applied for the first time my pick-3 method to horse racing. I think it was the Sportsmanís track. I had tracked two previous races at Sportsmanís. I was watching also the track on the TV set at the left, and the races at the track covered by the TV on the right side of the Sportsmanís TV. So I had 6 winning horse racing trifectas on a piece of paper. I didnít want to play any of the previous numbers in the same positions. I only was careful not to play really long shots in position 1 (to win). I came up with few combinations, one of them being the straight winning trifecta: 6-1-3. I also played #6 to win.
I remember also the reaction of disappointment from two players next to me at the bar. One of them expressed his newly found philosophy to his partner: "The horses have no minds! They donít read the program; they donít care about the odds! They are just numbers!" The horseracing LotWon was born that night...
ē More proof of randomness? How about the killer payouts at the Kentucky Derby 2005? TV Sports, Ratings, Drama, Tragedy, Even at Kentucky Derby 2005.
Check out also:
Resources in Horse Racing: Theory, Software, Systems, Trifectas
Lists the main pages on the subject of horseracing, software (trifectas), and systems.