Posted on July 15, 2001.

In Reply to: * 5% Frequency: The lowest lotto number in a lottery drawing is OVER 19* posted by DEZ on July 12, 2001.

• DEZ opened the floodgates! His idea has generated an incredible response in one day! I just received a very interesting message regarding the so-called “killer strategy”. I want to change the name to *I-wonder strategy*. You'll see why at the end of my message.

"I did take several days to examine your Killer Strategy and it appears to me that the idea has much merit, but your reasoning had a major flaw.

You stated:

'Every combination I play will contain the number 1 (the favorite). The remaining 5 lottery numbers will consist of combinations of the 12 lotto numbers in the most frequent 25% pairs. Total combinations of 12 taken 5 at a time: C(12,5) = 792. The combined probability to hit the lotto jackpot is 1/12 x 1/2 = 1/24.'

*This is not true. This is actually the combined probability that the favorite number will hit with AT LEAST ONE of the pairs. Most often, the drawing will include a pair not in the top 25% along with the AT LEAST ONE pair.*

If your reasoning had actually been true, then it should follow that in a 49 number game, instead of taking the top 25% of the number pairs (which make up 12 numbers and win 50% of the time), then instead, you could take the top 10% of the number pairs (which make up 5 numbers and win maybe only 10% of the time), combine those 5 with your favorite number for a total of six (one ticket for $1), buy this type of combo for each of your 49 'favorite' numbers in your 49 number lotto (covering every number for a total of $49) and know that you will win the lotto approximately once out of every ten drawings (top 10% of pairs win at least 10% of the time). As you can see, this is not true, either. It was very exciting for me to do the analysis for the strategy and hoping that it could possibly be true. I sincerely thank you for the HIGH I had during those days of anticipation!”

Indeed, his doubt is founded. Theoretically, “the favorite lotto number will hit with AT LEAST ONE of the pairs.” On the other hand, it doesn't mean the lotto favorite will hit with one top-pair only. I checked summarily in a monster game such PA 69/6. Since I had to do it manually, I only checked numbers 1 and 69 (always in the 1st position, or the last position, respectively). Number one was somehow average frequency-wise; number 69 had a poor frequency. I did a frequency report. I used the same report during the analysis. I did find several '6 of 6' hits of both #1 and #69 with their respective top-25% pairs. I found also a large number of 2nd and 3rd tier prizes. When I looked at the top-50% pairings, the amount of '6 of 6' hits was far larger.

Right now, I don't have the software to check automatically for hits with the 'top-xx%' pairs. First, the software should 'decompress' the numbers in the 'top-xx%' into 6-number combinations. Then, it should check each lotto combination against the real data file. The analysis could be done with a fixed frequency report, and also with a dynamic report. The dynamic report should be done after every lotto drawing.

Which leads us to this idea:

*“… instead, you could take the top 10% of the lotto number pairs (which make up 5 lottery numbers and win maybe only 10% of the time), combine those 5 with your favorite number for a total of six (one ticket for $1), buy this type of combo for each of your 49 'favorite' numbers in your 49 number lotto (covering every number for a total of $49) and know that you will win the lotto approximately once out of every ten drawings (top 10% of pairs win at least 10% of the time)."*

That's what I call the * lotto wonder grid* -- I ask myself

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Follow Ups:

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