Written by Ion Saliu on September 9, 2003 — and later.
BellCurveGenerator ~ version 12.0, Rocktober 2007.
The probability median or FFG median plays a very important role in random events.
(A digression: Everything is random, as I pointed out in various articles here. Specifically, the topic is presented in more detail on the Randomizing: An Art of Scientific Philosophy, Science of Philosophical Art, Philosophy of Artistic Science, Art of Philosophical Science, Science of Artistic Philosophy, Philosophy of Scientific Art page. Here, the term random refers to events of lower probabilities. In other words, events with higher degrees of randomness, such as gambling or lottery.)
I have written several programs that generate random numbers or combinations inside the normal or Gauss curve: BellBet, BelLotto, and especially BellCurveGenerator. The latter had been the most comprehensive generating program; it was slow, however, when generating combinations aimed at the first prize. The combinations, or numbers, or sets were taken sequentially from the FFG median area. The method of designing the FFG median area was quite precise at that time. We constantly develop. I discovered a more precise method of establishing the FFG median bell or zone.
The latest version of BellCurveGenerator is founded on the most precise formula of creating the FFG median area. The combinations are generated randomly, therefore more closely to the nature of the events. The user can select the amount of combinations, or numbers, or sets to generate. The software is far faster than any previous incarnation.
There is no doubt that there is a bias towards the combinations or sets in the FFG median zone. I have run several comparison tests with lotto wheels and non-median random combinations. The majority of the lotto 6/49 57- combination sets have performed better than the '3 of 6' 163-line lotto wheel. The sets also outperformed ordinary random combinations. The better performance is stronger especially at the '5 of 6' level. One of the FFG median sets even had a jackpot hit in UK lotto game!
One astonishing case is the National Football League (NFL). I speak of the last two full NFL seasons. I randomly chose 5-game parlays. (I avoid conscious selection to eliminate any bias towards certain teams.) The following trend has been established. Regardless of the 5-game parlays, less than 40% of the combinations show a 60%+ frequency. The favorable team combinations are located, you guessed it, inside the FFG median area. I named such a zone the FFG median bell.
The new NFL season (2003) started with one parlay inside the FFG median bell! Amazingly, 10 of 14 weeks in NFL 2003 have hits inside the FFG median bell. That's an exceptional 71% success rate! You can see here how it works with five randomly picked football games. It started in the 2001 season (not the beginning), and has continued through the 2002 and 2003 seasons. The file shows also the winning teams according to the dominant betting lines. The sports betting feature requires games text files. Each game consists of two teams. The team names are one-word names. The file consists of exactly one game per line. The files have no blank line. You can download also a sample game file: GAMES.5. You need to update the games files every week.
The roulette functions are differentiated based on the wheel layouts. The layout of the single-zero roulette wheel is very different from the layout of the double-zero roulette wheel. Therefore, the FFG median zones contain different roulette numbers.
The soccer pools section (totocalcio, pronosport) generates directly 1,x,2. Previously, it generated 0, 1, 2 or 1, 2, 3. The user had to convert to 1,x,2.
The horse racing function generates just about anything regarding horses: exactas (top two), trifectas (top three), superfectas (top four), etc. Previously the program only generated trifectas.
The parameters for the pick 3 game: 0 (lower bound); 9 (upper bound); 3 (items per combination). The parameters for the pick 4 game: 0, 9 , 4.
The lotto and Powerball functions have been modified. Previously, those functions tried to wheel the sets from the FFG median zone. I consider purely random combinations to be better than sets aiming at a minimum guarantee. See above (comparison to lottery wheels). It was impossible to generate keno combinations; now, the program generates thousands of keno combinations in mere seconds.
There is a nice addition to the lotto and Powerball functions. The user can select a lower bound and an upper bound of the numbers. For example, generate only lotto combinations between numbers 13 and 39. Or, generate only Powerball combinations between numbers 13 and 39, with the Powerball between 1 and 9.
You also know by now that the winning chance is lower in the first trials. Let's say I generate a random pick-4 combination. I don't have a high expectation I'll get the winning combination in my first trial. The chance increases with the number of combinations generated. Also, the probability increases with the number of times a particular function is repeated. The lotto and Powerball games need thousands of repeat runs.
“Our thoughts strayed constantly and without boundary
The ringing of the Division Bell had begun.”
(Pink Floyd, “High Hopes”, the “Division Bell” album)
Said Tabaki Paravicius, netizen extraordinaire:
You ain't seen nothing quite like it, axiomatic bella donna! BellCurveGenerator has all the bells, and whistles, and curves of a celestial body.
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