Only Cyber Sports Betting May Be Fair in Online Gambling
By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sports Betting Mathematics
Posted by Ion Saliu on December 07, 2000; later updates.
Evidently, no online casino has the means to cheat in sports betting. There are so many games! Billions and billions of dollars would be needed to fix only a tiny fraction. The bookies online or otherwise may not need cheating at all. They take out at least 9% (for the one-team betting, the best bet for the player). The takeout goes much higher (over 50%) for combination (parlay) betting. The odds are, in general, close to a 50-50 probability. That is, 50% of the players lose, the other 50% win. The bookie takes the money from the losers and pays the winners, minus the 9%-50%+ takeout.
Of course, there is no perfect player. No player can pick winners all the time. So, the bookmakers can safely rely on their house advantage. Some bookies, I heard, try to tilt the odds even further in their favor. To me it sounds silly, but this method is used. It is noticeable that the majority of the players tend to bet on the favorite, without much thinking of the point spread. So, what would some bookies do? They increase the point spread beyond the most common lines. Of course, smart players detect such a tendency immediately and can take advantage of the artificial bias.
The next concern for the player should be the reliability of the bookie. The Internet is a good source of information. A player can find out if a bookmaker is honest or not. The jurisdiction the bookie is under should be considered as well. The justice systems are not equal in this world. Some are a lot more trustworthy than others.
And now something not exactly related to this sports betting topic. It is not hard to figure out that there are persons out there who do not want me to make public my gambling opinions. I posted here some messages that clearly show the authors' displeasure with my writing, or systems, or ideas. I have nothing against freedom of speech. But it seems to me that said authors find conflict of interests with my ideas. They definitely prefer me to keep quiet. Sometimes, even intimidation is used. I don't give a damn on it, of course.
Or there is harassment in place sometimes. Or, in one case, a person literally has become obsessed with my persona or maybe person. Some of you may remember a visitor to this message board who signed Chip. Gambling Chip has gone now to something resembling a grotesque film. Chip sent me an envelope with the look of law correspondence. The documents were from The Supreme Court Of The State of New York, County of Richmond; The United States District Court For The District of New Jersey. The documents referred to a slander case, and a copyright infringement case. Chip claims he was the plaintiff in both cases and won big! The law firm of Dechert Price & Rhoads is also mentioned. I am also mentioned as a potential next . . . defendant!
The morale: gambling may get too exciting sometimes!
Set the record straight on Chip, his real name, illegal behavior, and Powerplay roulette, baccarat - June 2004.
Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS.XLS and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet:
Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet.
Resources in Theory of Probability, Mathematics, Gambling, Fraud
Visit the outstanding resources in theory of probability, mathematics, statistics, combinatorics. The most original theories are based on truth exclusively. The convincing formulas must be backed by data. The best data validation is offered by software.
Comments:
Home | Search | New Writings | Software | Odds, Generator | Contents | Forums | Sitemap