Horse Racing Stats: The Best, Most Common Winning Horse Numbers, Triple Crown History
By Ion Saliu, Founder of Horse Betting Mathematics
Reports created by FrequencyRank, horse racing statistical software.
The statistical reports rank the horse numbers by their frequency. The numbers are listed in descending order, from the most frequent (the hottest or best numbers) to the least frequent numbers (the coldest or the worst numbers). The reports show the number of hits; i.e. amount of races in which that particular horse number was a winner.
The ranking by frequency is performed two ways:
1) Regardless of position;
2) Position by position.
I've been looking for a long time to find all the results of the Triple Crown races. However, I did not want the results expressed as horse names, but horse numbers as in program numbers. Sometimes, the program numbers coincide with the post positions. The bettors bet on program numbers, not names. For example: The winning trifecta at the 2011 Kentucky Derby was 16 – 19 – 13.
It is extremely difficult to find such data. After serious Internet search, I had some success. I have now the entire history of the Kentucky Derby. I have 109 by-horse-numbers races at the Belmont Stakes. They had a couple of years without running. Also, in the 19th century, data for Belmont Stakes only shows the results by horse names.
I haven't been nearly as successful with the Preakness Stakes. That race is, indeed, the poor relative of the two big Triple Crown races! The official Preakness site does not keep records like Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby) and Belmont Park (Belmont Stakes). Here are PDF samples from 2011 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes: the winners by horse number (program), showing also the post positions (PP):
Despite my efforts, I only have 24 by-horse-numbers races at the Preakness Stakes (2011 – 1988). Before that (1988), the history is available only by horse names. I will publish the winning trifectas between 2011 – 1988 on a separate page, like for Kentucky Derby and Belmont States.
Even if the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes have large databases, the results are badly biased. Many, many races in the past had very few horses. I saw many races with just 3 horses. A couple of races only had 2 horses! The results are more meaningful in the modern era. The Kentucky Derby, for example, tried very hard to assure 20 horses per race beginning 1990s.
I created statistical reports for three periods (number of races):
1) the entire available history;
2) beginning with the legendary horse Secretariat (1973 to 2011, 38 races);
3) beginning with 1990 (21 races to 2011).
A few facts for the Kentucky Derby –
1.1. The entire history (136 races) — regardless of the 3 positions
#1 = 53 times; #3 = 50 times; #2 = 40 times (extreme bias because of the past);
1.2. The entire history (136 races) — position by position
1st position: #1 = 23 times;
2nd position: #5 = 23 times;
3rd position: #2 = 22 times.
2.1. The last 38 races — regardless of the 3 positions
#2 = 12 times; #3 = 11 times; #8 = 10 times;
2.2. The last 38 races — position by position
1st position: #4 = 7 times;
2nd position: #5 = 7 times;
3rd position: #2 = 7 times.
3.1. The last 21 races — regardless of the 3 positions
#5 = 7 times; #2 = 6 times; #8 = 6 times;
3.2. The last 21 races — position by position
1st position: #6 = 4 times;
2nd position: #5 = 5 times;
3rd position: #2 = 4 times.
Looks like #2 and #5 fared the best in all three periods of time at the Kentucky Derby. A good pool of numbers based on the last two periods of time: 2 – 4 – 5 – 6.
A few facts for the Belmont Stakes –
1.1. The entire available history (109 races) — regardless of the 3 positions
#1 = 58 times; #2 = 47 times; #3 = 47 times (extreme bias because of the past);
1.2. The entire available history (109 races) — position by position
1st position: #1 = 25 times;
2nd position: #3 = 20 times;
3rd position: #2 = 19 times.
2.1. The last 38 races — regardless of the 3 positions
#2 = 16 times; #5 = 14 times; #3 = 13 times;
2.2. The last 38 races — position by position
1st position: #5 = 6 times;
2nd position: #2 = 8 times;
3rd position: #4 = 5 times.
3.1. The last 21 races — regardless of the 3 positions
#2 = 9 times; #4 = 8 times; #5 = 7 times;
3.2. The last 21 races — position by position
1st position: #2 = 3 times;
2nd position: #8 = 4 times;
3rd position: #5 = 4 times.
Looks like #2 fared the best in all three periods of time at the Belmont Stakes. A good pool of numbers based on the last two periods of time: 2 – 4 – 5 – 8.
Looks like the best horse numbers based on the last two periods of time, at both Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, are 2 – 4 – 5. Let's not jump to the conclusion that the horse races are rigged!
The results (in numerical format) and the statistical analyses for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and the Belmont Stakes are available on three Web pages. I may or may not update those resources. You need to keep your own records from now on. Just add the winning trifecta after the respective race ends.
The statistical reports and result files (winning trifectas) will be updated soon after the respective Triple Crown race ends. Such resources are not available for the Preakness Stakes at this time.
• BrightH3 / Ultimate Horse Software are the most powerful software packages for betting at the horse tracks, especially OTW (off-track wagering). The software performs the most sophisticated statistical analyses and it generates straight trifectas with the highest chance to win any race.
Resources in Horse Racing: Betting, Software, Systems, Trifectas, Exactas
It presents the main pages on the subject of horse racing, software (trifectas), systems, wagering tips.
Comments: