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American Football (NFL) Results - Week Prognostication, Predictions

By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sports Betting Mathematics

Free American football, NFL results, predict, predictions, scores week.

Written on October 30, 2001 — and later.

• The results of week #7 in NFL compared to the prognostication of the Sport.XLS bet spreadsheet:

9 correct and 5 wrong; 64% correctness ratio.

As I said before, the expected correctness rate is around 2 out of 3 games.
I used incorrect data for one game, however: EAGLES – RAIDERS. I failed to input one win on the road for the Oakland Raiders (23-18 at Indianapolis Colts). The final predicted score should read 22.8 – 22.3 (Eagles by 0.5, not by 3.0). This game was also an anomaly in the sense that the Raiders had the advantage in the win category: 4 to 2! That's because they perform worse at home than on the road! It's the kind of game that's no-no from a pro football betting perspective. Unless, of course, the savvy player uses more sophisticated parameters (standard deviation, winning and losing streaks, etc.)

I present now the prognostication of SPORTS.xls for NFL Week 8. This time I include the win parameters as well. How to interpret a line:

Home1      Visitor2    1    2   Points1   Points2     Prognostication

Steelers   Ravens      5    1     23.6      11.9      Steels by 11.7

The home team is designated as 1, the visiting football team as 2. In the case above, Steelers is team 1, Ravens is team 2. Team 1 is favored 5 to 1 in the wins category. In other words, the odds in favor of a Steelers' win are 5 to 1. Of course, the odds against a Steelers win are 1 to 5.
In the final predicted score category: Steelers 23.6, Ravens 11.9 (Steelers by 11.7).

A most curious game is :

Home1      Visitor2    1    2   Points1   Points2     Prognostication

Redskins   Seahawks    3    3     19.5      19.5      Undecided

It is very rare to find a totally equitable game, such as this one. Since a “tie” is also very rare in the NFL, I preferred the term undecided. This game is a perfect coin toss…

Home1 Visitor2 1 2 Points1 Points2 Prognostication Titans Jaguars 3 1 24.0 22.8 Titans by 1.2 Steelers Ravens 5 1 23.6 11.9 Steels by 11.7 Dolphins Panthers 5 1 21.8 14.8 Dolphs by 7 Giants Cowboys 4 1 25.8 15.1 Giants by 10.7 Falcons Patriots 4 3 23.7 22.0 Falcs by 1.7 Packers Bucs 5 1 25.5 13.8 Packs by 11.7 Bears Browns 4 1 21.6 18.5 Bears by 3.1 Cardinals Eagles 1 4 12.2 23.9 Eagles by 11.7 49ers Lions 5 1 24.8 17.2 49ers by 7.5 Bills Colts 1 5 23.5 29.8 Colts by 6.3 Chargers Chiefs 6 1 23.5 17.5 Charges by 8 Redskins Seahawks 3 3 19.5 19.5 Undecided Saints Jets 1 4 18.8 19.6 Jets by 0.6 Raiders Broncos 4 1 29.5 20.3 Raiders by 9.2

There is nothing I can do for you, bookies! Nor can I do anything for pay-for sports betting services. A simple spreadsheet is, at least, as effective as the mountain of (not so necessary) data the pay-for betting services offer.

Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS Excel bet spreadsheet and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet:
• Analysis of the results of the football betting spreadsheet.

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Predictions for American Football, NFL compared to odds, betting lines.

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• Specific software for sports betting
~ Sports.xls, NFL2001.xls, Toto1x2.xls: Templates in Excel spreadsheet software to use with the sports betting system presented on the pages: "Sports Prognosticating or Betting: Best System" and "Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet";
~ BetUS, intelligent random combination generator for sports betting, the American way; the player bets on either the favorite team to win by more than the point spread, or the underdog to lose by less than the point spread;
~ AMBET, is much like BetUS — but with a twist! You can add W or L at the end of a team name; add W if the team was a winner in the previous game (week); add L if the team lost the last game (week);
~ TEAMS, combination generator for sports betting; the player selects any number of games, then the number of outcomes.

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