# American Football (NFL) Results - Week Prognostication, Predictions

## By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sports Betting Mathematics

Written on October 30, 2001  and later.

 The results of week #7 in NFL compared to the prognostication of the Sport.XLS bet spreadsheet:

9 correct and 5 wrong; 64% correctness ratio.

As I said before, the expected correctness rate is around 2 out of 3 games.
I used incorrect data for one game, however: EAGLES  RAIDERS. I failed to input one win on the road for the Oakland Raiders (23-18 at Indianapolis Colts). The final predicted score should read 22.8  22.3 (Eagles by 0.5, not by 3.0). This game was also an anomaly in the sense that the Raiders had the advantage in the win category: 4 to 2! That's because they perform worse at home than on the road! It's the kind of game that's no-no from a pro football betting perspective. Unless, of course, the savvy player uses more sophisticated parameters (standard deviation, winning and losing streaks, etc.)

I present now the prognostication of SPORTS.xls for NFL Week 8. This time I include the win parameters as well. How to interpret a line:

```
Home1      Visitor2    1    2   Points1   Points2     Prognostication

Steelers   Ravens      5    1     23.6      11.9      Steels by 11.7
```

The home team is designated as 1, the visiting football team as 2. In the case above, Steelers is team 1, Ravens is team 2. Team 1 is favored 5 to 1 in the wins category. In other words, the odds in favor of a Steelers' win are 5 to 1. Of course, the odds against a Steelers win are 1 to 5.
In the final predicted score category: Steelers 23.6, Ravens 11.9 (Steelers by 11.7).

A most curious game is :

```
Home1      Visitor2    1    2   Points1   Points2     Prognostication

Redskins   Seahawks    3    3     19.5      19.5      Undecided
```

It is very rare to find a totally equitable game, such as this one. Since a tie is also very rare in the NFL, I preferred the term undecided. This game is a perfect coin toss

```
4-Nov-01

Home1      Visitor2    1    2   Points1   Points2     Prognostication

Titans     Jaguars     3    1     24.0      22.8      Titans by 1.2
Steelers   Ravens      5    1     23.6      11.9      Steels by 11.7
Dolphins   Panthers    5    1     21.8      14.8      Dolphs by 7
Giants     Cowboys     4    1     25.8      15.1      Giants by 10.7
Falcons    Patriots    4    3     23.7      22.0      Falcs by 1.7
Packers    Bucs        5    1     25.5      13.8      Packs by 11.7
Bears      Browns      4    1     21.6      18.5      Bears by 3.1
Cardinals  Eagles      1    4     12.2      23.9      Eagles by 11.7
49ers      Lions       5    1     24.8      17.2      49ers by 7.5
Bills      Colts       1    5     23.5      29.8      Colts by 6.3
Chargers   Chiefs      6    1     23.5      17.5      Charges by 8
Redskins   Seahawks    3    3     19.5      19.5      Undecided
Saints     Jets        1    4     18.8      19.6      Jets by 0.6
Raiders    Broncos     4    1     29.5      20.3      Raiders by 9.2

```

There is nothing I can do for you, bookies! Nor can I do anything for pay-for sports betting services. A simple spreadsheet is, at least, as effective as the mountain of (not so necessary) data the pay-for betting services offer.

 Analysis of the results of the football betting spreadsheet.

## Resources in Sports Betting: Theory, Mathematics, Excel Spreadsheet, Systems, Parlays

See a comprehensive directory of the pages and materials on the subject of sports betting, software, systems, and parlays.

 Specific software for sports betting
~ Sports.xls, NFL2001.xls, Toto1x2.xls: Templates in Excel spreadsheet software to use with the sports betting system presented on the pages: "Sports Prognosticating or Betting: Best System" and "Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet";
~ BetUS, intelligent random combination generator for sports betting, the American way; the player bets on either the favorite team to win by more than the point spread, or the underdog to lose by less than the point spread;
~ AMBET, is much like BetUS  but with a twist! You can add W or L at the end of a team name; add W if the team was a winner in the previous game (week); add L if the team lost the last game (week);
~ TEAMS, combination generator for sports betting; the player selects any number of games, then the number of outcomes.