Written by Ion Saliu on September 10, 2002 — and later.
1. Introductory Notes To Sports Betting
Consider this your start on the way to win consistently at sports betting. The strategies and systems presented here deal with sports betting from two perspectives:
1) generate combinations in the manner of LotWon lottery;
2) in the manner of casino gambling.
On one hand, we hear strongly negative opinions on the probability of winning consistently at sports betting. Summarize: the player will lose no matter what gambling or betting system he/she uses. Nobody can predict a game winner, let alone multiple winners (parlays), unless the game is fixed or rigged or mob-controlled! On the other hand, there are hilariously positive opinions and systems to win at sports betting! “100% guaranteed to always win at sports betting!”
2. Gambling Mathematics, Theory Of Probability Applied To Sports Betting
Sports betting as a form of gambling is a very complex phenomenon ruled by theory of probability. This web site offers plenty of information on theory of probability, theory of games, and gambling mathematics. Nothing comes even close to this website. Mathematics of sport bet is extensively analyzed here. The cornerstone is the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG).
I will present now an abbreviated form of my betting system applied to the American football (specifically the NFL). You can apply this strategy manually (pencil and paper) or use a spreadsheet.
You will keep records for each team, separated in two files (spreadsheets): record at home and record on the road. Using the overall records has much lower relevance. You will work with these two very important elements: Home Team At home and Visiting Team On_the_road.
In this abbreviated version, you will use only the results (win/loss) and the points scored/allowed. Add the wins for the home team at-home with the losses for the visiting team on-the-road. Do the percentage. Normally, a percentage over 75% is a good indicator for a home team win. The average scores can offer additional useful info. In the case bellow, the game was very close to call: Just a slight advantage for the Home-Team. But the Visiting Team had a realistically good chance to win.
Using my strategy for the Italian soccer leagues, I predicted 9 even 10 (out of 13) games (70% or 77%). That is, I predicted with only one prognostication sign: 1, or X, or 2. Then I would use two signs for close games (1X, or 12, or X2), even 1X2 (cover all possible outcomes).
Keep also records of how many times you missed to pick correctly a particular team. You'll notice that certain teams tend to get surprising results more often than most teams. But it's very unusual to be surprised by the same team 5 or more consecutive games!
3. The Best Software (Freeware!) To Tackle Sports Betting
I offer several free systems and tons of free software to play and win. The list of my gambling, lotto and lottery freeware is so long, that I can't afford to put it on this startup page. Check the FTP download site for all that's available for free. Here is a list of free software that handles sports betting:
• Sports.xls, NFL2001.xls, Toto1x2.xls - Excel 95 spreadsheets. A common template to use with the sports betting system presented on the message board: "Sports Prognosticating or Betting: Best System".
Sports.xls, NFL2001.xls are identical spreadsheets. They have real data from the 2001 NFL season. Toto1x2.xls is a spreadsheet with real data from the 2001 Italian soccer championship Serie A.
• BellCurveGenerator.EXE generates combinations within the bell (Gauss) curve. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling calculates the median automatically. The application handles just about any game: pick-3, pick-4, lotto-5, lotto-6, lotto-7, PowerBall-6, PowerBall-7, horse racing, roulette and sports betting (including the famous European soccer pools and American sports teams).
• BETUS32.EXE is an intelligent random combination generator for sports betting, the American way. The player selects a number of games to bet on. The player bets on either the favorite team to win by more than the point spread, or the underdog to lose by less than the point spread.
• AMBET.EXE is much like BETUS32.EXE—but with a twist! You can add W or L at the end of a team name. Add W if the team was a winner in the previous game (week). Add L if the team lost the last game (week). For example:
COLTS-L, CHIEFS-L
BRONCOS-L, PATRIOTS-W
4. Ion Saliu's Gambling Theory & Software Compared to Other Gambling Methods
My gambling theory, including sport betting, is founded on mathematics, specifically the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). Also, everything I set out in my software must be validated mathematically to the best of my knowledge.
In all honesty, I don't see anything out there that offers better ways to winning at gambling or sports betting. I wish there was something easier and more efficient than my approach. Ain't nothing, honestly. IF my casino gambling methodology doesn't win the — there is absolutely nothing to accomplish such daunting tasks. Never will be, if my research has been futile. Never mind that they will continue to put huge efforts in playing the stock market or predicting the weather. The latter two phenomena are equally random to sport betting gambling or casino gambling. They have some advantages, but sport gambling has its advantages as well. In the end, it's all about streaks and skips, no matter what the phenomenon is. The skips (misses) are shorter and the streaks are longer if the probability is higher; and vice versa.
The rest of the sports betting gambling theory is nothing more than gut feeling. I have a hunch that that team is going to win! I got also insider information… So, right now, I cannot see any casino gambling approach better than mine. That's the only way, like my gambling theory and software do: Track the winning and the losing streaks and their corresponding skips (misses). There are some no playing moments (or play the minimum bet); other situations demand a higher bet. It is hard work, but nothing else works better.
In fact, the science of gambling is the science of the streaks. Theory of probability, in general, is the science of the streaks and skips. A statement such as "This event will always have the probability equal to zero point zero zero three four etc." is virtually meaningless. The probability represents the ratio of the favorable cases over total possible cases. So, it works with integers. In real-life we deal with integers (discrete values) such as numbers of elements and numbers of trials. The events will hit, or miss, in streaks pretty clearly predicted by rules and formulas of probability theory. If you play longer sessions at the blackjack table, for example, you will face a higher probability of some very long losing streaks. But play shorter sessions, and there is a far better chance that you'll escape with shorter losing streaks. The sport teams also encounter winning and losing streaks as any other random phenomena. Of course, fair play is assumed.
For we must remember that there is NO such a thing as ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY in the entire Universe. That's way humans invented the gods and myths; humans badly need the comfort of absolute certainty.
5. Sports Betting Links and Resources at This Web Site
The footer of this page shows the most significant pages of this web site. The links that follow are just a few. They detail more the mathematics of sportbetting, plus sports betting systems and software. Copy and paste and build your best sport betting strategy manual! But keep in mind that I am the true copyright owner, no matter how you edit the material!
• The excitement is higher when it's hard to predict the results. The NFL 2002 season offers great excitement. Valid for college football, too. There are no favorites! Or, every team has a good shot at winning any game, against anybody! Looks like the stats play a minor role. That's not exactly true! The results still follow the stats, within statistical limits, of course. What the fans and especially the bettors see is the discrepancy between the betting lines and the actual results. The betting lines try hard to ignore the randomness.
I use in-house sports betting software. It is founded on the same principles as LotWon. Therefore, randomness plays a very important rule in generating combinations. The programs are applicable to parlays. The 5-team parlay software is clearly more successful than the statistical spreadsheet! The programs eliminate certain patterns from previous results and generate lottery-like combinations. The numbers are replaced with team names. The hit rate is better than 2 out of 3 weeks. I haven't encountered two or more consecutive losses. The playing field amounts from 6 to 16 parlays per week. The payout can be as high as 24 to 1 (25% house edge or vigourish). Thus, the worst winning case comes to +8.
• There is a very interesting aspect: Repeat-winning teams from previous weeks. I have a 244-week result file in NFL (National Football League, USA). The results are against the point spread (ATS). The last result is week 5, the 2006 NFL season. Betting against the winning teams in the previous week(s) offers a positive balance. Read more information: Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet
Here are some useful sports links. They offer schedules, betting lines, odds, results, and useful information. Things can change dramatically on the Internet. You may need to copy-and-paste the addresses, or google the essential keywords.
sports.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/pastscores/files/pastscores.html - Scores & Odds Archive.
www.nss.net/SCORES/ - Sports Betting, Gambling, Handicapping, Live Lines.
www.vegasinsider.com - VegasInsider.com.
www.repole.com/sun4cast/ - Sunshine Forecast Historical Score Request Form.
espn.go.com - ESPN.com- the #1 sports web site in the world.
cbs.sportsline.com - CBS.SportsLine.com – the website of CBS Sports.
NFL.com – the official site of the National Football League.
Resources in Sports Betting: Theory, Mathematics, Excel Spreadsheet, Systems, Parlays.
See a comprehensive directory of the pages and materials on the subject of sports betting, software, systems, and parlays.
For the best mathematical casino gambling strategy (approach) for non-system players, read:
Casino, Casinos: Gambling, Gamble, Win, Winning in Casino.
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