Posted on July 22, 2000.
In Reply to: Gamblers' Fallacy: Doctrine of Maturity of Chances posted by Chip on July 22, 2000.
• Crocodilule, I don't know exactly what happened to you after reading my post and prior to your latest reply. Did you have a few drinks to cool your anger? You are still trembling of anger in your message…
The "message" of your post can be summarized as: "Don't gamble, you never win!" You even invoke prestigious entities in this regard: Encyclopedia Britannica and Albert Einstein. By the way, Einstein did propose tongue in cheek a “roulette system”: Double up after each loss! See how ridiculous even a genius can be sometimes, especially when it's none of his business? As a rule of thumb, you should always question everything, regardless who the author is. Otherwise, this sin is known as “the truth by authority”.
Why didn't you put "Don't gamble, you never win!" as the headline of your famous "New York Times" advertisement? Secondly, after making the case on “gambler's fallacy”, how can you still claim you are ahead $20,000 at baccarat? (By the way, is that enough for the house your partner just bought?) And why do you still keep your name secret, since you'll be losing anyway? I can't help it, I just have to ask a question from Pink Floyd's "Money": "Was he really drunk at the time?"
I wouldn't give the “Lizard of Odds” a dime, even I were facing the firing squad. Give him $1,000 AND also my system? Are you nuts? And to whom? To an “authority” who never heard of the "probability formula of M successes in N trials"? An "authority" who sustains that tossing 200 heads in a row has the same chance as getting one heads? What other authorities you swear by? Blackjack authors who never ever implemented their ideas at the table! Peter Griffin himself admits being a lousy blackjack player. Edward O. Thorp was challenged by a real gambling theoretician AND player, John Scarne, to a blackjack test.
Here is an excerpt from "Scarne's New Complete Guide to Gambling":
"Thorp agreed and after the three days of play in Reno, Nevada, we realized that Thorp knew nothing about the science of Black Jack play, and his countdown card system never seemed to work... Thorp later admitted to us that he never really gambled..." (page 348).
Let's return for a moment to our “Ferrari metaphor”. Your “racing” fear can be only explained one way. You claim your car is a Ferrari. In reality, it is tin resembling the shape and color of a Ferrari. The engine is taken from a cheap wrecked car...