Learn the first sports betting system based on statistics for soccer, calcio, American football.

Sports Prognosticating or Betting for NFL American Football, Soccer, Calcio ~
Excel Sport Bet Spreadsheet

By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sport Bet Mathematics

Sports prognosticating, betting for American football starts with this spreadsheet.

Written on October 24, 2000.

Study an Excel betting spreadsheet to help with picks in NFL football or European football.

• Some realized that I probably have a sports betting system. Indeed, that's the case. Actually, it is how I started my gambling theory. Back in Romania, I loved to play soccer pools: 1X2. 1 represents a win for the home team; x is a tie (very rare in the American football; very common in the Italian calcio leagues); 2 represents a win for the visiting team. I needed to devise a strategy to give me the best results based on statistics. The system was best suited for the Italian soccer championships (Serie A and Serie B). The Italian soccer games have a high level of unpredictability. In most other national championships, the results are more easily predictable (the home teams win in most cases).

I will present now an abbreviated form of my system applied to the American football (specifically the NFL). I do not offer a computer program at this time. You can apply this strategy manually (pencil and paper) or use a spreadsheet.

You will keep records for each team, separated in two files (spreadsheets): record at home and record on the road. Using the overall records has much lower relevance. You will work with these two very important elements: Home Team At_home and Visiting Team On_the_road.

In this abbreviated version, you will use only the results (win/loss) and the points scored/allowed. Add the wins for the home team at-home with the losses for the visiting team on-the-road. Do the percentage. Normally, a percentage over 75% is a good indicator for a home team win. The average scores can offer additional useful info. In the case bellow, the game was very close to call: Just a slight advantage for the Home-Team. But the Visiting-Team had a realistically good chance to win.

Using my strategy for the Italian soccer leagues, I predicted 9 even 10 (out of 13) games (70% or 77%). That is, I predicted with only one prognostication sign: 1, or X, or 2. Then I would use two signs for close games (1X, or 12, or X2), even 1X2.

Home Team: At-Home

Week Wins Losses Points Scored Points Allowed
Week 1 1 0 20 13
Week 2 1 0 13 10
Week 3 0 1 20 27
Week 4 1 0 21 14
Total 3 1 74 64
Average 75% 25% 18.5 16

Visiting Team: On-the-Road

Week Wins Losses Points Scored Points Allowed
Week 1 0 1 20 31
Week 2 1 0 21 14
Week 3 0 1 16 35
Week 4 1 0 24 13
Total 2 2 81 93
Average 50% 50% 20 23

Predicted Result Based on Wins/Losses:
Win for Home Team: 3 (wins at home) + 2 (Visitor losses) = 5
of 8 (62%)

Win for Visiting Team: 1 (Home losses) + 2 (Road wins) = 3 of 8 (38%)

Home Team


Average points scored: 18

Average points allowed: 16


Visiting Team


Average points scored: 20

Average points allowed: 23

Predicted Score: 20 - 18 for
Home-Team

The rating can be improved further by adding other parameters. How about the standard deviation applied to the scores?

I do not have all NFL data. I explained this partial system to a Miami Dolphins fan. Miami played the Detroit Lions on November 5, 2000. The line was Detroit by 2.5 points. My system showed a Detroit win 4 out of 7 = 57% and a Miami win 3 out of 7 = 43%. The game was too close to call by those stats. The average scores, however, indicated a Miami win by 3 points. In fact, Miami won by 15 points. Obviously, nobody would have bet such a big point spread. The fact is my system beat the line. Its statistical foundation had an edge over the bookies…

Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS.XLS and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet: Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet. The page also presents a very interesting fact: Repeat-winning teams from previous weeks.

Ion Saliu's Probability Book has valuable sports prognostication implications.
Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: Probability Theory, Live!
~ Founded on valuable mathematical discoveries with a wide range of scientific applications, including probability theory applied to sports betting, gambling, software, real winning systems for football and soccer.

This book is about sport prognosticating, betting, bet, soccer, calcio, American football NFL.

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The first sports betting system was created by Ion Saliu, founder of sport bet mathematics.

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This is the first ever betting system based on statistics and applied to Italian soccer or calcio.