Written on October 24, 2000; last update September 2011.
• Nota bene: You download the spreadsheets as Sports.exe, NFL2001.exe, Toto1x2.exe; then, you rename the exe extension to XLS. Better still, download BrightS.exe, the integrated sports betting software — see link in the Resources section. The bet spreadsheets can be opened directly in Excel — no renaming necessary.
• Some realized that I probably have a sports betting system. Indeed, that's the case. Actually, it is how I started my gambling theory. Back in Romania, I loved to play soccer pools: 1X2. 1 represents a win for the home team; x is a tie (very rare in the American football; very common in the Italian calcio leagues); 2 represents a win for the visiting team. I needed to devise a strategy to give me the best results based on statistics. The system was best suited for the Italian soccer championships (Serie A and Serie B). The Italian soccer games have a high level of unpredictability. In most other national championships, the results are more easily predictable (the home teams win in most cases).
I will present now an abbreviated form of my system applied to the American football (specifically the NFL). I do not offer a computer program at this time. You can apply this strategy manually (pencil and paper) or use a spreadsheet.
You will keep records for each team, separated in two files (spreadsheets): record at home and record on the road. Using the overall records has much lower relevance. You will work with these two very important elements: Home Team At_home and Visiting Team On_the_road.
In this abbreviated version, you will use only the results (win/loss) and the points scored/allowed. Add the wins for the home team at-home with the losses for the visiting team on-the-road. Do the percentage. Normally, a percentage over 75% is a good indicator for a home team win. The average scores can offer additional useful info. In the case bellow, the game was very close to call: Just a slight advantage for the Home-Team. But the Visiting-Team had a realistically good chance to win.
Using my strategy for the Italian soccer leagues, I predicted 9 even 10 (out of 13) games (70% or 77%). That is, I predicted with only one prognostication sign: 1, or X, or 2. Then I would use two signs for close games (1X, or 12, or X2), even 1X2.
| Week | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed |
| Week 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 13 |
| Week 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| Week 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| Week 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 14 |
| Total | 3 | 1 | 74 | 64 |
| Average | 75% | 25% | 18.5 | 16 |
| Week | Wins | Losses | Points Scored | Points Allowed |
| Week 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 31 |
| Week 2 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 14 |
| Week 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 35 |
| Week 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 13 |
| Total | 2 | 2 | 81 | 93 |
| Average | 50% | 50% | 20 | 23 |
Predicted Result Based on Wins/Losses:
Win for Home Team: 3 (wins at home) + 2
(Visitor losses) = 5
of 8 (62%)
Win for Visiting Team: 1 (Home losses) + 2 (Road wins) = 3 of 8 (38%)
Home Team
Average points allowed: 16
Visiting Team
Average points allowed: 23
Predicted Score: 20 - 18 for
Home-Team
The rating can be improved further by adding other parameters. How about the standard deviation applied to the scores?
I do not have all NFL data. I explained this partial system to a Miami Dolphins fan. Miami played the Detroit Lions on November 5, 2000. The line was Detroit by 2.5 points. My system showed a Detroit win 4 out of 7 = 57% and a Miami win 3 out of 7 = 43%. The game was too close to call by those stats. The average scores, however, indicated a Miami win by 3 points. In fact, Miami won by 15 points. Obviously, nobody would have bet such a big point spread. The fact is my system beat the line. Its statistical foundation had an edge over the bookies…
Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS.XLS and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet: "Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet". The page also presents a very interesting fact: Repeat-winning teams from previous weeks.
Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: Probability Theory, Live!
~ Founded on valuable mathematical discoveries with a wide range of scientific applications, including probability theory applied to sports betting, gambling, software, real winning systems for football and soccer.
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