Predictictions: American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines, Point Spread, Predicting.

American Football (NFL) Prognosticating or Betting - Week 7, October 28, 2001

By Ion Saliu, Odds–Maker At-Large

Professional American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines, Prediction, Betting.

Published on October 25, 2001 — and later.

• In response to some questions on Sports Betting or Prognosticating.
I do not offer direct betting systems or strategies; not freebies, anyway. There are 6 weeks worth of statistics in the 2001 NFL regular season. Based on the stats so far, I compiled the following table for Week 7, October 28, 2001. I used the spreadsheet SPORTS.XLS, with some adaptations.

                    28-Oct-01

Home(1)   Visitor(2)      Points(1)  Points(2)        Bet

Chiefs     Colts            24.3       24.5        Colts by 0.2
Ravens     Jaguars          22.8       10.8        Ravens by 12
Bucs       Vikings          17.3       13.0        Bucs by 4.3
Lions      Bengals          17.0       20.8        Bengs by 3.8
Bears      49ers            21.3       19.8        Bears by 1.5
Rams       Saints           22.9       16.7        Rams by 6.2
Carolina   Jets             17.8       26.8        Jets by 9
Cowboys    Cardinals        16.0       16.7        Cards by 0.7
Eagles     Raiders          23.3       20.3        Eagles by 3
Broncos    Pats             24.2       15.0        Broncs by 9.2
Chargers   Bills            27.2       14.3        Charges by 13
Dolphins   Seahawks         24.5       20.2        Seahws by 4.3
Redskins   Giants           13.7       22.7        Giants by 9
Steelers   Titans           18.5       10.2        Steels by 8.3

Only few points here.
I look at the game Ravens – Titans. Statistically, the Ravens are favored to win by 12, according to SPORTS.XLS. The bet seems even more attractive when compared to a line that reads “Ravens by 7.5”. Moreover, the Ravens lost their last two games, although they were favorites. It happened before. The Ravens lost to Bengals and Broncos in consecutive games. Then, the next game, they beat the Titans by 19 (covering a 3.5 point spread).

I look also at Steelers – Titans. Statistically, the Steelers are favored to win by 8.3 points. The score should be 19-10, statistically speaking. They won their previous two games. Unlike Baltimore, Pittsburgh was not supposed to win those games. Now, it is time for the Steelers to win as favorites.
The third time is the charm. If not, I won't mind the fourth time. I would just bet bigger...

Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS.XLS and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet:
~ Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet.

American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines, Point Spread.

• The excitement is higher when it's hard to predict the results. The NFL 2002 season offers great excitement. Valid for college football, too. There are no favorites! Or, every team has a good shot at winning any game, against anybody! Looks like the stats play a minor role. That's not exactly true! The results still follow the stats, within statistical limits, of course. What the fans and especially the bettors see is the discrepancy between the betting lines and the actual results. The betting lines try hard to ignore the randomness.

I use in-house sports betting software. It is founded on the same principles as LotWon. Therefore, randomness plays a very important rule in generating combinations. The prediction software is applicable to parlays. The 5-team parlay software is clearly more successful than the statistical spreadsheet! The programs eliminate certain patterns from previous results and generate lottery-like combinations. The numbers are replaced with team names. The hit rate is better than 2 out of 3 weeks. I haven't encountered two or more consecutive losses. The playing field amounts from 6 to 16 parlays per week. The payout can be as high as 24 to 1 (25% house edge or vigourish). Thus, the worst winning case comes to +8.

Here are some useful sports links. They offer schedules, betting lines, odds, results, and useful information. Things can change dramatically on the Internet. You may need to copy-and-paste the addresses, or google the essential keywords.

sports.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/pastscores/files/pastscores.html - Scores & Odds Archive.
www.nss.net/SCORES/ - Sports Betting, Gambling, Handicapping, Live Lines.
www.vegasinsider.com - VegasInsider.com.
www.repole.com/sun4cast/ - Sunshine Forecast Historical Score Request Form.

espn.go.com - ESPN.com- the #1 sports web site in the world.
cbs.sportsline.com - CBS.SportsLine.com – the website of CBS Sports.
NFL.com – the official site of the National Football League.

American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines, Predictictions, Results.

Predictictions for American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines.

Resources in Sports Betting: Theory, Mathematics, Excel Spreadsheet, Systems, Parlays.
See a comprehensive directory of the pages and materials on the subject of sports betting, software, systems, and parlays.

Winning at sports betting, soccer, football, parlay, bet systems, software.

Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet.

The Winning Combinations Come Predominantly From Inside The FFG Median Bell.

Caveats in Theory of Probability.

NFL National Football League Games: Schedule, Results, Scores.
~ This page presents the schedule and game results (scores) in the current NFL season.

Free Sports Betting Software.

Predictictions: American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines, Point Spread, Betting.

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Comments:
: : Predictictions: American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines. In response to some questions on "Sports Betting or Prognosticating". I do not offer direct betting systems or football prediction strategies. There are 6 weeks worth of statistics in the 2001 NFL regular season. Based on the stats so far, I compiled the following table for Week 7, October 28, 2001. I used the spreadsheet SPORTS.XLS, with some adaptations. Chiefs Colts 24.3 24.5 Colts by 0.2 point. Ravens Jaguars 22.8 10.8 Ravens by 12 points Bucs Vikings 17.3 13.0 Bucs by 4.3 Lions Bengals 17.0 20.8 Bengals by 3.8 Bears 49ers 21.3 19.8 Bears by 1.5 Rams Saints 22.9 16.7 Rams by 6.2. Carolina Jets 17.8 26.8 Jets by 9. Cowboys Cardinals 16.0 16.7 Prediction: Cardinals by 0.7 point. Eagles Raiders 23.3 20.3 Eagles by 3 Broncos Pats 24.2 15.0 Broncos by 9.2 Chargers Bills 27.2 14.3 Chargers by 13 points. Dolphins Seahawks 24.5 20.2 Seahawks by 4.3 Redskins Giants 13.7 22.7 Giants by 9 Steelers at Titans 18.5 10.2 Predict Steelers by 8.3. Statistically, the Ravens are favored to win by 12, according to SPORTS.XLS. The bet seems even more attractive when compared to a line that reads "Ravens by 7.5". Moreover, the Ravens lost their last two games, although they were favorites. It happened before. The Ravens lost to Bengals and Broncos in consecutive games. Then, the next game, they beat the Titans by 19 (covering a 3.5 point spread). I look also at Steelers – Titans. Statistically, the Steelers are favored to win by 8.3 points. The score should be 19-10, statistically speaking. They won their previous two games. Unlike Baltimore, Pittsburgh was not supposed to win those games. Now, it is time for the Steelers to win as favorites. Study "Predictictions: American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines, Point Spread, Betting." On one hand, we hear strongly negative opinions on the probability of winning consistently at sports betting. Summarize: the player will lose no matter what gambling or betting system he/she uses. Nobody can predict a game winner, let alone multiple winners (parlays), unless the game is fixed or rigged or mob-controlled! Sports betting as a form of gambling is a very complex phenomenon ruled by theory of probability. This web site offers plenty of information on theory of probability, theory of games, and gambling mathematics. I will present now an abbreviated form of my prediction system applied to the American football (specifically the NFL). Analysis of Predictictions: American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines, Point Spread, Betting. You will keep records for each team, separated in two files (spreadsheets): record at home and record on the road. Using the overall records has much lower relevance. You will work with these two very important elements: Home Team At home and Visiting Team On_the_road. In this abbreviated version, you will use only the results and the points scored/allowed. Here is a list of free software that handles sports betting: SPORTS.XLS - an Excel 95 spreadsheet. This is a template to use with the sports betting system presented on the message board. "Sports Prognosticating or Betting: Best System, Excel Spreadsheet". BETUS32.EXE is an intelligent random combination generator for sports betting, the American way. The player selects a number of games to bet on. The player bets on either the favorite team to win by more than the point spread, or the underdog to lose by less than the point spread. AMBET.EXE is much like BETUS32.EXE—but with a twist! Add W if the team was a winner in the previous game (week). Add L if the team lost the last game (week). Surprise, surprises, upset, upsets, the underdog beating the favorite. Primer: winning sports betting, soccer, football, parlay, bet systems, software. Related: Sports Prognosticating or Betting, thye main spreadsheet, Excel. Related: Sports betting soccer: results, tips, law. American Football (NFL) Prognosticating or Betting Software: BETUS, AMBET. Creating input files for BETUS. BETUS.EXE – Sports betting, the American way. American Football (NFL) Results - Week #8. American Football (NFL) Results - Week 7; Prognostication Week #8. American Football (NFL) Prognosticating or Betting - Week 7. BELLBET.EXE – Generate combinations inside the bell (Gauss) curve), around the median. American football (specifically the NFL), also college football. Applicable to all US (American) professional pro sports: basketball, baseball, ice hockey. Using theory of probability, gambling software and Excel spreadsheets in sports betting: bet on football, football association. Sports, betting, sports betting, bet, wager, spreadsheet, spreadsheets. Statistical analysis in football, soccer, soccer pools. Download free Excel software spreadsheet for team, teams, home, record, road, standings, results. See the odds, line, betting lines, system, prognostication, prognosticating, game, statistics, strategy, method. Predictictions, predictiction, predict, and predicting. Winning, combinations, win, picks, football, gambling, games, parlay. Calculate probability, odds of combination, combinations to play, plays. Title: Predictictions for American Football, NFL, Odds, Betting Lines. Presentation of professional football NFL predictions for the week compared to the weekly predictions of sports betting software, Excel spreadsheet. Plus predictions for next week. About American professional football, NFL, college, sports, sport, betting. How to bet, wager with spreadsheet, spreadsheets, Excel, software. Know the team, teams, results, odds, line, betting lines. 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