Authored on January 06, 2001 — and later.
• Here is how I implemented the sports prognostication method described in a previous post: Sports Prognosticating or Betting. I used Excel for the task: one workbook consisting of 19 sheets. Each Italian football (soccer or calcio) team has its own spreadsheet, divided in record at home and record on the road. There is also a working spreadsheet, where the final calculations are done.
The prognostication outcomes: 1, X, 2 are percentages.
Prognostication for the Italian soccer, Serie A, for January 7, 2001 (giornata 13)
* Milan and Inter are from the same city: Milano. Both teams play at home. I selected 1X2 for that reason. In addition, Inter has shown clear unpredictability. I call it surprise-ability or surprisability. It is the main feature of the Italian teams. That's why the Italian calcio is so hard to predict. Some of the teams have a high level of surprisability. I keep also record of the surprise-ability factor.
Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS.XLS and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet:
Home1 Visitor2 1 X 2 Goals1 Goals2 Progno
Atalanta Roma 33.33 25.00 41.67 1.08 1.33 X2
Bologna Brescia 58.33 25.00 16.67 1.50 1.00 1
Juventus Fiore 36.36 45.45 18.18 1.27 1.09 1X
Lazio Napoli 54.55 36.36 9.09 1.55 0.64 1
Lecce Verona 36.36 45.45 18.18 1.45 1.36 X
Milan Inter 50.00 33.33 16.67 1.83 1.00 1X2 *
Parma Reggina 83.34 8.33 8.33 2.25 0.67 1
Perugia Udinese 45.45 36.36 18.18 1.64 1.09 1X
Vicenza Bari 50.00 30.00 20.00 1.60 1.10 1
Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: Probability Theory, Live!
~ Founded on valuable mathematical discoveries with a wide range of scientific applications, including probability theory applied to sports betting, football, soccer, spreadsheet prediction software, the role of past results (scores).
Resources in Sports Betting: Theory, Mathematics, Excel Spreadsheet, Systems, Parlays.
See a comprehensive directory of the pages and materials on the subject of sports betting, software, systems, and parlays.
• Specific software for sports betting
~ Sports.xls, NFL2001.xls, Toto1x2.xls: Templates in Excel spreadsheet software to use with the sports betting system presented on the pages: "Sports Prognosticating or Betting: Best System" and "Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet";
~ BETUS32.exe, intelligent random combination generator for sports betting, the American way; the player bets on either the favorite team to win by more than the point spread, or the underdog to lose by less than the point spread;
~ AMBET.exe, is much like BETUS32.EXE — but with a twist! You can add W or L at the end of a team name; add W if the team was a winner in the previous game (week); add L if the team lost the last game (week);
~ TEAMS.exe, combination generator for sports betting; the player selects any number of games, then the number of outcomes.