# Prognostication for the Italian Soccer (Totocalcio), Serie A ~Excel Sports Betting Spreadsheets

## By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sports Betting Mathematics

Authored on January 06, 2001 — and later.

• Here is how I implemented the sports prognostication method described in a previous post: Sports Prognosticating or Betting. I used Excel for the task: one workbook consisting of 19 sheets. Each Italian football (soccer or calcio) team has its own spreadsheet, divided in record at home and record on the road.
• There is also a working spreadsheet, where the final calculations are done.
• There are detailed steps on how to add data (on paper or in a spreadsheet) and how to do the calculations (or let the macros do the calculations: Sports Betting, Gambling Theory of Sport, Bet Systems, Software, Spreadsheets.

The prognostication outcomes 1, X, 2 are percentages.

Prognostication for the Italian soccer, Serie A, for January 7, 2001 (giornata 13)

```Home1	Visitor2  1       X       2    Goals1  Goals2 Progno

Atalanta Roma	 33.33	25.00	41.67	1.08	1.33	X2
Bologna Brescia  58.33	25.00	16.67	1.50	1.00	1
Juventus Fiore	 36.36	45.45	18.18	1.27	1.09	1X
Lazio	Napoli	 54.55	36.36	9.09	1.55	0.64	1
Lecce	Verona	 36.36	45.45	18.18	1.45	1.36	X
Milan	Inter	 50.00	33.33	16.67	1.83	1.00	1X2 *
Parma	Reggina	 83.34	8.33	8.33	2.25	0.67	1
Perugia	Udinese	 45.45	36.36	18.18	1.64	1.09	1X
Vicenza	Bari	 50.00	30.00	20.00	1.60	1.10	1
```

* Milan and Inter are from the same city: Milano. Both teams play at home. I selected 1X2 for that reason. In addition, Inter has shown clear unpredictability. I call it surprise-ability or surprisability. It is the main feature of the Italian teams. That's why the Italian calcio is so hard to predict. Some of the teams have a high level of surprise-ability. I keep also records of the surprise-ability factor.

Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS.XLS and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet:

Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: Probability Theory, Live!
~ Founded on valuable mathematical discoveries with a wide range of scientific applications, including probability theory applied to sports betting, football, soccer, spreadsheet prediction software, the role of past results (scores).

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