Posted by Bill Smith on April 09, 2001.
In Reply to: Optimal drawings range to analyze posted by Ion Saliu on April 07, 2001.
Axiomaticule, BELLOTTO does seem to be much easier to use but does it take into account the DATA-6 (real world) lottory results file or the LEAST-6 least likely pairings file? I spent a considerble amount of time going back some 340 drawings (In Illinois the Lotto has 52 balls and is run twice a week on Wed. & Sat.) and creating the required DATA-6 file like the tutorial instructs. I want to make sure that this effort and the past outcomes are accounted for. Does BELLOTTO do that?
Also, I notice that a lot of posters to this board play a 6/49 lotto; how much better are the odds in that game than what Illinois has (6/52)?
Thank you for any reply.
: “El Loco” asked this meaningful question:
: “Maybe I should stick to analyzing the last 100 drawings in the future as well (instead of 200).”
: I believe there is an optimal range, correlated to the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). Simplifying, I recommend the following values:
: 1) For lotto: the range should represent three times the biggest lotto number in the game. For example, in a lotto-49 game, the analysis should cover the most recent 150 drawings (49 x 3 = 147; I always use round figures). An intuitive explanation will consider a number of 3 unique pairs that make up a lotto combination. Lotto-5 and lotto-7 are close to the same situation.
: 2) For digit lotteries: use the same intuitive method. In the pick-3 game, there are C(3,2) = 3 pairs. Each pair has two possibilities, since the digit position counts. The digits 1 and 2 have two pairings: 1-2 and 2-1. as a result, there are almost 6 pairs, if we break down a pick-3 combination. The range of analysis should be 60 (6 pairs x 10 digits). I also analyze 100 drawings in the pick-3 lottery.
: I read Scrooge’s strategy. It is interesting; it has a mathematical foundation. Karl M, of course, has a solid approach, using some complex statistical science. My approach does not follow that path. But he is also in the stock market analysis, hence his preference. I wonder what path would Wall Street professionals take. Soon after I posted my strategy, at least one major brokerage firm literally had a grip on my website. I checked the access-log file; the firm occupied a long segment in the server file! Maybe they rushed to the lotteries and took advantage of the incredible return: over a million for 19,000! (Of course, it also depends on how many winners my strategy creates in the same lottery! Fear not: at this time, my website only gets 7,000+ hits a week!)
Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: Probability Theory, Live!
~ Founded on valuable mathematics, including applications to lotto number-pairing analyses.
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