Posted by Bill Smith on April 09, 2001.

In Reply to: Optimal drawings range to analyze posted by Ion Saliu on April 07, 2001.

Axiomaticule, **BELLOTTO** does seem to be much easier to use but does it take into account the DATA-6 (real world) lottory results file or the LEAST-6 least likely pairings file? I spent a considerble amount of time going back some 340 drawings (In Illinois the Lotto has 52 balls and is run twice a week on Wed. & Sat.) and creating the required DATA-6 file like the tutorial instructs. I want to make sure that this effort and the past outcomes are accounted for. Does **BELLOTTO** do that?

Also, I notice that a lot of posters to this board play a 6/49 lotto; how much better are the odds in that game than what Illinois has (6/52)?

Thank you for any reply.

: “El Loco” asked this meaningful question:

: “Maybe I should stick to analyzing the last 100 drawings in the future as well (instead of 200).”

: I believe there is an optimal range, correlated to the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). Simplifying, I recommend the following values:

:
1) For lotto: the range should represent three times the biggest lotto number in the game. For example, in a lotto-49 game, the analysis should cover the most recent 150 drawings (49 x 3 = 147; I always use round figures). An intuitive explanation will consider a number of 3 unique pairs that make up a lotto combination. Lotto-5 and lotto-7 are close to the same situation.

:
2) For digit lotteries: use the same intuitive method. In the pick-3 game, there are C(3,2) = 3 pairs. Each pair has two possibilities, since the digit position counts. The digits 1 and 2 have two pairings: 1-2 and 2-1. as a result, there are almost 6 pairs, if we break down a pick-3 combination. The range of analysis should be 60 (6 pairs x 10 digits). I also analyze 100 drawings in the pick-3 lottery.

: I read Scrooge’s strategy. It is interesting; it has a mathematical foundation. Karl M, of course, has a solid approach, using some complex statistical science. My approach does not follow that path. But he is also in the stock market analysis, hence his preference. I wonder what path would Wall Street professionals take. Soon after I posted my strategy, at least one major brokerage firm literally had a grip on my website. I checked the access-log file; the firm occupied a long segment in the server file! Maybe they rushed to the lotteries and took advantage of the incredible return: over a million for 19,000! (Of course, it also depends on how many winners my strategy creates in the same lottery! Fear not: at this time, my website only gets 7,000+ hits a week!)

Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: *Probability Theory, Live!*

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**Ion Saliu***4/09/2001.*

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