On Predictions for Belmont Stakes Triple Crown: Exactas, Trifectas.

Predictions for Belmont Stakes 2001 Horse Racing: The Best Software

Predictions for Belmont Stakes Triple Crown: Exactas, Trifectas.

Posted by Ion Saliu on June 09, 2001.

ē I donít want to be accused of disrespecting the horses. In reality, the horses are my favorite species, second to humans only. The horses played a great role in human history. This time, Iíll name the horses, even if I use numbers to play horse racing! Here is the field at Belmont Stakes 2001:



Post Horse Odds

1 Invisible Ink 8/1
2 Balto Star 15/1
3 Dollar Bill 6/1
4 Thunder Blitz 10/1
5 Monarchos 5/2
6 Buckle Down Ben 30/1
7 Dr Greenfield 30/1
8 A P Valentine 5/1
9 Point Given 8/5

I used HORSES.EXE software with two types of inner filters: favorites and long-shot exclusions. I wanted at least one of the five favorites: 1, 3, 5, 8, 9. I did not want a combination of two of the three long shots 2, 6, 7. Such software restrictions are probably validated in more than 90% of the horse races. Total possible horse racing combinations (trifectas) with the restrictions: 390. Of course, one can play all 390 combinations and have a high probability to win. Problem is, if the favorite horses are among the top three finishers the winning trifecta pays less than total cost! There are situations when the trifecta pays very well at some horse race tracks, including Belmont. But one should know what the streak is, as far as long-shot trifectas are concerned. In such rare cases, the restrictions will be reversed. I would want combinations of two long shots as favorites. Meanwhile, I would want to exclude all combinations of two horse favorites. Anyway, this is a more complicated issue. I stop here, but Iíll proceed with my picks for Belmont Stakes 2001.

After I generated the 390 horseracing trifectas, I ran FORMULA.EXE. I needed to know the median according to FFG. For a probability p= 1/390 and a degree of certainty DC=50% the result is 270 (for this Belmont Stakes horse race). Then I ran SHUFFLE.EXE. The program "scrambled" the output trifecta file in a random fashion. That way I was able to simulate random horseracing picks. I shuffled the output file five times. I loaded the triofectas file in the editor and navigated to the line 270. I liked the horse racing combinations in that region:

5,3,8
9,8,5
9,4,2
8,9,1

The way to play would be:
$10 to win on each first horse in the combinations; cost $40;
$1 boxed trifectas; cost $24.

On the other hand, using BELLBET.EXE is much simpler.

Hopefully, a combination of 2,4,9 will win. I donít see winnings close to those at the Kentucky Derby. Thatís the drawback of horseracing. You have to go through long streaks of meager winnings until long-shot trifectas hit...

Ion Saliu

Date: June 9, 2001, 15:02 US Eastern time.

Predictions for Belmont Stakes Triple Crown: Exactas, Trifectas.

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    Predictions for Belmont Stakes Triple Crown: Exactas, Trifectas.

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