The Science of Prediction: Gambling, Lottery, Nature (Weather Forecasting)

Yes, most eliminating filters are disabled. Still, the software offers a lot of power. I have a very hard time trying to convince myself to release fee-based versions of such software. The filters in those programs are the most essentially mathematical in all my software. They are primary mathematical filters. That is, the filters are calculated directly by the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). The filters in my public lottery software are derived (second-step calculations). The derived filters have a minimum and a maximum level.

The primary filters in SoftwareLotto.exe do not need two levels. They require only the N parameter: Number of trials for specific degrees of certainty, DC. I do not want to get into details, because I do not want to kill the lottery concept. Anyway, selfishly probably, not before I win significantly. But even then I would accept only a strictly limited number of users spread around the world.

If the FFG median is considered, then repeat and non-repeat have an equal degree of certainty. The filters in SoftwareLotto are based on no-repeat (elimination) based on the FFG median (DC = 50%). Enabling five parameters with DC = 50% or ½ yields .5 ^ 5 = 1 in 32. Of course, N is different for the same DC for different groups of numbers. That represents the concept of cycle of fruition. For single groups of numbers, the cycle of fruition might be just 2 or 3 future drawings to play. For pairings, the cycle of fruition might go up to 20+ future drawings to play.

There is even more extraordinary news. All the above referred to appearance or no appearance of groups of numbers. That is, the upper frequency limit was set to 0. But I can tell you (and other people can tell you) that, sometimes, the upper limit is 3, or 4, or even beyond 5! Those are rare occurrences, indeed. That's why they yield no combinations most of the time. When they hit, however, the amount of combinations is a single-digit or teen amount.

It hits rarely, but it wins big. The overwhelming majority of humans perceive prediction as the science to forecast an outcome all the time. That's religion, not science! Prediction means calculating the outcome with the highest degree of certainty.

Gambling is the easiest and the cleanest form of scientific prediction. There is a monetary cost, and there is a monetary gain. Gambling prediction calculates the most highly probable outcome, DC, within a number of trials, N. The gambler has the possibility to place low bets when DC is low; and bet high when the DC is high. Wise martingales can literally sweep the losses in previous trials, and hit a big win at the end of the progression.

That is the formidable reason why my Fundamental Formula of Gambling was met with such fiery hostility!

Unfortunately, other forms of prediction do not enjoy the same latitude. Take weather forecasting. Only 100% prediction (degree of certainty) is acceptable at times. That is worse than impossible — it is absurd. Earthquakes cannot be predicted with a degree of certainty even above 1% (one percent)! It is the tragic but true reality! They might be able to forecast 15 minutes warnings in tornado-prone areas.

Again, it is a rarely validated prediction. So, as they say, better safe than sorry! I know, in my area, they apply that overly cautious form of prediction. If there is wind rotation, they trigger tornado warnings. They woke me up very early last month, August of 2008. Tornados are very rare in this area. But the weather specialists, paid by the government, absolutely exaggerate the risk! They do not consider the minimum speed of the wind rotation that can trigger a tornado.

Not any rotation speed triggers a tornado. Wind rotation speed less than fifty miles per hour cannot possibly trigger tornadoes! I have lived in the United States since 1985. There have not been any tornados here, in South Central Pennsylvania. In a very few cases, wind rotation caused some damage. I saw first hand two cases in two years (2004 and 2005). The twisting wind damaged a few treetops in the Caledonia Natural Park (between Chambersburg and Gettysburg). It happened at least 500 feet above sea level. They formed big commissions to study the effects on site. After serious deliberations, the government experts concluded it must have been the effect of weak tornados! They spend some real money just by constituting commissions to determine if storms qualify as tornados. Then, the local TV stations will spend several days talking about those tornado commissions and their findings. There is money to be made. I notice increased TV advertising by insurance companies and funeral homes...

The problem with this overly cautious approach is loss of trust. The cry-wolf syndrome. People lose their trust in the predictors. We had a few more warnings after that early August 2008 tornado scare. I did not pay attention to them. Actually, I heard the warnings all over the radio. But I kept working on my computer. I had many web pages to edit — and I edited them with no fear of tornadoes. I heard the thunder in the distance. I stopped working only when I heard the thunder close to my head crown. I was out on the trail during one of those announced stormy events. I got soaked, but I enjoyed the whole experience. Mild Fear was also enjoyable!

When they predict the weather, they must pay more attention to precision, to accuracy. For example, only a minimum of speed in wind rotation can cause a tornado. They must establish that in earnest. For warning people too often does more harm than good. People lose trust in the predictors. People might not give a damn on severe warnings, when such warnings are warranted and real.

Gambling prediction, gambling mathematics in general, does not lead to the same tragic consequences. I mean, some people could lose lots of money, if they bet over their heads. I always stress this concept I coined as a caring human: Degree of certainty. There is no absolute certainty. Everything comes in degrees of certainty, but it is never 100% guaranteed. This is the most compelling proof of the absurdity of the god concept. How many times have we heard during a catastrophe: “Where was you, god?” It is all random, brother and sister of intelligently skeptical mine! That absolute certainty we call god does not exist. Take me to His face, if you can. I guarantee you, I'd beat Him up like a drum. Ay...BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!!! Not even Satan could defend Him! Ay...que...BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA....

I've heard this from both ends of the ideological spectrum. It's about left and right, like during the Cold War. From the left, I am blamed that Communism gave me very good education for free. Indeed, that's the case. Yet, I am really tough on Communism. From the right, I am blamed for ungodly behavior. Indeed, that's the case. Most Americans, some four out of five of them, believe that God is real. Yet, I brought the God concept to its ultimate absurdity: A mathematical formula that badly disproves the very idea of divinity.

I can answer the accusations with ease and also peace of mind. TRUTH is above anything and anybody. Communism educated me well, but only to the goal of my self-destruction. The better-educated one is, the better view of the everything one acquires. Getting closer and closer to the truth brought one into serious trouble. Like during the Dark Ages, getting closer to the truth and expressing it was synonymous to self-destruction under Communism. On the other hand (the right hand), America offered me safe haven. But I did not come over here for that hallucinatory illusion they call heaven. I came over here for the Truth. I will not betray the Truth in order to please the sponsors of my refugee resettlement. Religious fanatics attack me, too. When you say religious fanatics, you mean Muslims in the first place. Curiously, the Muslims appreciate the fact that I treat their religion equally to any other religion, including Christianity. There was a real human need for religion to come into existence. But that era should have ended long ago, during the time of the Renaissance. The existence of religion is illegitimate after that moment in history. Therefore each and every form of religion is bad. Religion is evil this day and age.

Best of luck, fata mea!

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