The Bayes Theorem is not a bad idea and it led to simulation software. Problem is, simulation is not a 100%-accuracy method. Or, as Ion Saliu's Paradox proves undeniably, simulation is only 63% accurate.
However, the famed Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) offers the best and most accurate method of determining the real probability from a randomly generated statistical series. We only need to generate as many random outcomes as we can think of — the more, the better. See practical methods using specialized probability and statistical software.
The first lottery systems, followed later by gambling systems, were based on observation. It all happened long before the computers were invented. Such manual gambling systems are still in usage today, especially by old players and women. The so-called paper-and-pencil systems, for example, count how many times lottery numbers were drawn and how they were paired.
The negative camp will stress two points in the modern era. One is a reminiscence of the mysticism era: fetishism. The other is pseudo-mathematical. They represent the facts in a fashion that belongs to fetishism. They claim, in a vocal manner: "The lottery is random" — as if there were other phenomena that are non-random! The fetishism factor: "The lotto balls don't have memory" — as if plastic balls were human beings to remember rules!